Islamabad, April 04: A so-called “city-killer” asteroid, initially feared to be on a collision course with Earth, may instead crash into the Moon, according to updated observations from NASA scientists.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered last year, raised concerns when early projections suggested a 3% chance of striking Earth in December 2032. If it had collided with Earth, the impact could have caused devastation up to 80 kilometers from the site.
However, further tracking and analysis have since ruled out an Earth impact, lowering the threat level to almost zero.
But new data from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has increased the likelihood of a Moon impact, placing the odds at nearly 4%.
Lead author Andy Rivkin of Johns Hopkins University noted in a study published in Research Notes of the AAS Journal that while the Moon impact is still not certain, it remains a possibility.
Read More: New Asteroid Could Hit Earth in 2032
NASA emphasized that while the probability of an impact remains low, with a 96% chance of missing, the situation is still being monitored. The next opportunity for close tracking will be in early 2026.
The revised data also updated the asteroid’s size to between 53 and 67 meters, roughly the size of a 15-story building, highlighting the potential scale of a lunar impact.
Even with a 1% chance of Earth impact, scientists agree that it would justify planning asteroid deflection missions.
Currently, the focus is on using a potential Moon impact to refine planetary defense strategies.
Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s planetary defense office, noted that such an impact could provide valuable data for future asteroid threat preparedness.
As advanced asteroid-tracking systems come online, NASA expects more potential impactors to be identified in the coming years.
