Islamabad, 5 June 2025: Black Market Surges that’s the rising concern in Pakistan’s foreign exchange landscape, as a growing number of importers report difficulty in accessing US dollars through official banking channels.
According to traders and industry insiders, only 20% to 30% of importers are currently permitted to make dollar payments for clearing their shipments, amid what appears to be an intensifying dollar shortage in the interbank market.
The strain has widened the gap between official exchange rates and market demand. Many importers are now forced to pay Rs. 285 per dollar up to Rs. 3 above the central bank’s official interbank rate of Rs. 282 effectively inflating costs for foreign goods and raw materials.
Only a limited number of banks, primarily those processing significant export proceeds, are reportedly able to fulfill dollar transactions.
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Most other institutions cite a lack of available foreign currency, pushing businesses to delay payments or seek alternative, and often informal, channels.
Black Market Surges as delays in official dollar disbursement nudge more transactions off the books. Importers say they are increasingly resorting to unofficial means to meet international obligations, despite the inherent risks and legal implications.
While the open currency market has remained largely stable, with no signs of panic buying, currency dealers confirm a rise in demand due to the seasonal Haj pilgrimage. However, authorities have tightened documentation requirements for purchases exceeding $1,000, in an effort to curb misuse.
Market analysts suggest that the gradual weakening of the rupee may be a deliberate tactic to manage mounting external liabilities without triggering alarm.
A sudden devaluation, they warn, could discourage exporters from converting their foreign earnings in a timely manner, exacerbating liquidity challenges.
Exporters are still repatriating their overseas revenues, but the growing disparity between interbank and unofficial rates could slow this trend if left unchecked. Meanwhile, remittance inflows continue to offer a degree of support to the local currency.
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The government expects overseas Pakistanis to send home $38 billion in fiscal year 2024–25, with a target of $39 billion set for the following year.
Black Market Surges as Pakistan’s currency conundrum deepens, highlighting the urgent need for structural reforms and improved forex liquidity management to restore confidence in the formal financial system.
