Islamabad, June 28, 2025: Fuel prices in Pakistan are set for a moderate increase from July 1, largely due to a rise in international oil rates. However, there’s a possibility of a decline again by mid-month if global prices continue to ease, according to a forecast by Arif Habib Limited (AHL).
Between June 16 and June 30, the average international price of diesel (Gas Oil) climbed by 10.3% to $87.18 per barrel, while petrol (Gasoline) prices rose 5.8% to $78.42 per barrel. This surge followed heightened geopolitical tensions.
Despite recent fluctuations, including a dip after a ceasefire on June 24, AHL projects domestic diesel prices to increase by Rs18.06 per litre to Rs280.65, and petrol by Rs13.86 per litre to Rs272.29 from July 1. The Pakistani rupee also saw a slight appreciation during this period.
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To soften the immediate impact on consumers, the government might temporarily reduce the petroleum development levy (PDL). This could limit the July 1 hike to around Rs4.5 per litre for diesel and Rs8 per litre for petrol, with full levy restoration planned once prices stabilize.
Looking ahead, if international prices keep falling, AHL forecasts potential reductions of Rs13.47 per litre for diesel and Rs5.89 per litre for petrol in the July 16–31 pricing period. This comes after the federal government recently announced new levies effective July 1 and a price hike on June 16.
