Islamabad 25 July: The Government has started a hard-hitting campaign against black market dollar traders to pull the Pakistani Rupee back from the brink.
Malik Bostan, chairman of the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP), said on a TV talk show yesterday that the US Dollar could drop to as low as Rs. 270 against the rupee in the coming weeks, thanks to a military-led crackdown on currency smugglers. The rupee, trading at Rs. 284.95 in the interbank market this week, has been under fire lately, and the government is betting on tough measures to turn things around.
A senior official from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is said to have met with representatives of exchange companies this week set down the rules. The focus now is on shutting down dollar smuggling across the Afghan and Iranian borders. “These guys were moving millions out of the country every day,” said Bostan, claiming the smuggling crackdown has already nudged the open market rate down to Rs. 283 on Friday, a Re. 1 gain.
Bostan said the dollar drain up to $5 million a day into Afghanistan in 2023 alone was a big reason for the rupee’s woes. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) had been soaking up $9 billion from the interbank market over the past nine months to shore up reserves, squeezing dollar supply. Now, with the SBP stepping back and law enforcement hitting the streets, Bostan’s optimistic. “We could see Rs. 280 soon, maybe even Rs. 270,” he told the TV host, flashing a confident grin.
READ MORE: Dollar Crunch Persists Despite Record Remittances and Surplus
Dollar Shortages Easing Up
In posh areas like Defence, money changers were running dry, pushing desperate buyers to the black market where rates hit Rs. 295–300, a good 5% above the official rate. Bostan insists that’s over now. “Dollars are back at exchange companies,” he said, urging people to sell while the rupee’s got momentum. I checked with a local exchanger this morning, and he confirmed dollars are indeed easier to get, though he’s still cautious about the future.
Mixed Signals from Analysts
Not everyone’s buying the optimism. A recent poll showed 51% of analysts think the rupee will hover between Rs. 285–290 by December 2025, but a few warn it could slide past Rs. 300 if Pakistan’s IMF talks hit a snag or reforms falter. The IMF’s $7 billion Extended Fund Facility, with its first billion already disbursed in May 2025, demands a tight exchange rate gap—within 1.25% between interbank and open market rates—to keep remittances flowing through legal channels. Right now, that gap’s still too wide, pushing money to hawala networks.
This isn’t the first time the military’s stepped in. Back in 2023, a similar crackdown pulled the rupee back from the edge after it hit historic lows.
