Islamabad 3 August: In the early hours of May 7, 2025, a historic air battle unfolded between Pakistan and India, marking one of the largest aerial conflicts in decades.
Just after midnight, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) operations room detected dozens of Indian aircraft mobilizing across the border. Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Sidhu, anticipating an Indian assault following tensions over a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, ordered Pakistan’s Chinese-made J-10C jets to scramble and target India’s prized Rafale fighters, a French-made aircraft renowned for its undefeated combat record.
The hour-long engagement, involving an estimated 110 aircraft, saw Pakistan’s J-10C jets, armed with advanced China-made PL-15 missiles, achieve a stunning victory by downing at least one Rafale, according to U.S. officials cited by Reuters. This event, occurring under the cover of darkness, has sent shockwaves through the global military community, raising questions about the efficacy of Western military technology against emerging Chinese alternatives.
The Role of Intelligence and Technology
The key to Pakistan’s success lay not in the superiority of the J-10C over the Rafale but in a critical Indian intelligence failure. Indian officials admitted that their pilots underestimated the range of the PL-15 missile, believing it to be limited to 150 km. In reality, the missile struck the Rafale from approximately 200 km away, marking one of the longest-range air-to-air strikes ever recorded. Pakistani officials claimed their forces executed a sophisticated “kill chain,” integrating air, land, and space sensors through a Pakistani-developed system, Data Link 17. This network, which linked Chinese J-10Cs with a Swedish-made surveillance plane, allowed the jets to fly undetected by turning off their radars and relying on external radar feeds.
Pakistan also employed electronic warfare tactics to confuse Indian pilots, though Indian officials downplayed the effectiveness of these efforts. The combination of precise intelligence, advanced Chinese weaponry, and multi-domain operations gave Pakistan a decisive edge in the encounter.
Global Implications and Market Shifts
The downing of the Rafale, a flagship of India’s air force, has sparked intense debate about the reliability of Western military hardware. Shares of Dassault Aviation, the Rafale’s manufacturer, dipped following the news, reflecting market concerns about its competitive edge. Meanwhile, Indonesia, which has pending Rafale orders, announced it is now considering purchasing J-10C jets, signaling a potential boost for China’s defense exports.
READ MORE: BBC Confirms Footage of Crashed Indian Rafale Jet
Retired U.K. Air Marshal Greg Bagwell, a fellow at RUSI, emphasized that the incident underscores the importance of accurate intelligence and its application in modern warfare, rather than definitively proving the superiority of Chinese or Western technology. Nonetheless, the battle has drawn keen interest from global powers, with China’s air chief, Lt.-Gen. Wang Gang, visiting Pakistan in July to study the PAF’s tactics.
Conflicting Narratives and Regional Tensions
The clash was triggered by heightened tensions following an April 2025 attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 civilians. India blamed Pakistan for supporting the militants, a charge Islamabad denied, leading to retaliatory airstrikes on May 7. While Pakistan claims it downed five Indian aircraft, including three Rafales, a MiG-29, and an Su-30, India has not officially acknowledged the loss of a Rafale. However, France’s air chief and a Dassault executive confirmed in June 2025 that evidence points to the loss of a Rafale and two other Indian aircraft.
Both nations have traded conflicting accounts, with Pakistan asserting its aircraft operated within its airspace and India denying significant losses. The battle of narratives continues to fuel regional tensions, with implications for future military engagements and defense procurement strategies.
A New Era in Air Warfare?
This unprecedented clash has highlighted the evolving nature of air combat, where intelligence, electronic warfare, and long-range weaponry can tip the scales. As Pakistan and China deepen their military cooperation, and with other nations taking note of the J-10C’s performance, the global defense landscape may see significant shifts. For now, the skies over South Asia remain a focal point for military analysts and policymakers worldwide.
