Pakistan’s wheat cultivation area dropped by 6.5 percent in 2025 compared to last year, even as total output is projected at 29 million tonnes, about 5 percent above the five-year average, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).
The FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) attributed the decline in wheat sowing to the removal of the minimum support price (MSP) in May 2024 and persistently low domestic prices at planting time. Many farmers shifted to alternative crops such as vegetables, oilseeds, and condiments that offered higher profitability.
Despite reduced acreage, yields in irrigated zones remained above average. However, losses were reported in rain-fed areas—which make up around one-fifth of total wheat plantings—and in some northern irrigated regions due to water shortages.
Meanwhile, paddy sowing for 2025 concluded in early August, though floods and landslides between June and August forced replanting in several areas. Northern and northwestern Pakistan, along with parts of Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan, experienced significant crop damage and disruption of agricultural livelihoods.
Wheat imports during the 2024-25 marketing year were well below the five-year average after Islamabad imposed an import ban in July 2024. Wheat flour exports remain prohibited, including refined flour, semolina, and other wheat-based products made from imports.
Rice exports, Pakistan’s primary cereal export, are forecast at 5.5 million tonnes for 2025, while maize exports are projected at 500,000 tonnes for the 2025-26 cycle.
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Wheat flour prices, a key staple for households, fell by around 50 percent between March 2024 and July 2025 due to successive bumper harvests, higher imports in 2023-24, and the government’s withdrawal from procurement under MSP.
The elimination of the MSP was part of economic reforms linked to the $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout approved in 2024.
