Nvidia Faces Wall Street’s High Expectations Two Years Into AI Boom

Key Points:

• Nvidia’s revenue has more than tripled and profits quadrupled since the AI boom began in late 2022.
• The company’s fiscal Q2 earnings report comes as Wall Street eyes its continued dominance in AI chipmaking.
• Nvidia recently hit a $4 trillion market cap, with AI spending from tech giants fueling its growth.

Two years after OpenAI’s ChatGPT sparked a wave of artificial intelligence investment, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is under intense Wall Street scrutiny as it prepares to report fiscal second-quarter earnings this Wednesday.

Since late 2022, when generative AI began reshaping the tech landscape, Nvidia’s business has undergone a dramatic transformation. Revenue has more than tripled and profits have quadrupled, turning the company from a gaming chip leader into the undisputed powerhouse of AI computing.

Market Growth and Stock Performance

Nvidia’s meteoric rise has made it the first company to surpass a $4 trillion market cap. Its stock is up twelvefold since the end of 2022 and has already climbed 33% in 2025, closing last Friday at $177.99.

Despite this staggering growth, expansion has slowed. After five straight quarters of triple-digit revenue growth, fiscal Q1 growth dropped to 69%. For Q2, analysts expect a 53% year-over-year jump to $45.9 billion, according to LSEG estimates.

AI Spending Driving Revenue

AI now dominates Nvidia’s business. In Q1, 88% of sales came from data centers, powered by demand from major hyperscalers like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta. Last year, three unnamed customers accounted for 34% of sales, underscoring Nvidia’s reliance on big tech investment.

Collectively, tech giants are set to spend $320 billion on AI and data centers in 2025. Analysts estimate that about half of this spending ultimately flows to Nvidia.

Blackwell Chips at the Core of Growth

Central to Nvidia’s continued dominance is its Blackwell architecture, which ties together 72 GPUs into a single system. In May, Nvidia reported $27 billion in Blackwell sales, up from $11 billion the prior quarter. Analysts say strong Blackwell demand confirms robust hyperscaler spending.

Blackwell’s superior computing power is expected to enable firms like OpenAI and Anthropic to develop more advanced AI models. OpenAI’s GPT-5 was trained on Nvidia’s previous-generation Hopper chips, but future models will likely leverage Blackwell.

A next-gen Blackwell Ultra is set to ship in H2 2025, while Nvidia’s Rubin architecture, expected in 2027, is still in early development stages.

Challenges: China Sales and Regulation

Despite global growth, Nvidia faces headwinds in China. The U.S. government has restricted exports of Nvidia’s H20 AI chip, which could have contributed $8 billion in Q2 sales. Analysts now expect Nvidia to exclude H20 revenue from its guidance, citing pressure from Beijing to support domestic chipmakers like Huawei.

President Donald Trump recently struck a deal with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, allowing limited H20 exports in exchange for a 15% revenue tax. Even so, analysts expect conservative guidance as regulatory and geopolitical risks linger.

What’s Next?

For fiscal Q3, Wall Street expects revenue to rise 50% to $52.7 billion. If Nvidia delivers a “beat and raise” performance, analysts say it could rekindle AI market optimism and fuel another leg of growth.

Meanwhile, Nvidia’s global profile continues to soar. CEO Jensen Huang has become a high-profile figure, regularly meeting leaders across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. His influence now stretches beyond technology into geopolitics, as Nvidia remains the cornerstone of the AI revolution.