Despite projections that Pakistan’s population will reach 325 million over the next 15 years and energy needs will continue to rise, the country may delay its gas import plans due to declining demand until 2040 and a surplus of liquefied natural gas (LNG) expected to last beyond 2031.
According to a report in, the government is considering an “all-of-government” approach to slow down both pipeline import projects from Turkmenistan and Iran and to readjust LNG supply schedules, while advancing structural reforms to ensure sustainable growth.
The reassessment follows a study by UK-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie, which projects a three percent decline in national gas demand between 2025 and 2040 under a business-as-usual scenario, even as total gas availability, including take-or-pay LNG contracts, rises through the early 2030s.
The total gas supply, including LNG, is estimated to peak at five million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) by 2031, compared to about 3.8 mmcfd at present, marking a 31 percent increase. Demand, however, is expected to decline by 3.8 percent by 2031 and by another 2.5 percent in the following nine years, with an overall average decrease of three percent through 2040.
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The study accounts for a more than 12 percent drop in gas demand from the power sector, along with 2.8 percent and four percent growth in industrial and domestic consumption, respectively.
Reforms under consideration include addressing barriers to investment in exploration and production, implementing a weighted average cost of gas, tackling power sector offtake issues, reducing forced curtailment of domestic fields, minimizing gas losses, expanding storage capacity, and managing the impact of increasing solar energy adoption.
One of the study’s main findings is that Pakistan will not require as much LNG as previously expected, even in the short to medium term. It recommends developing a comprehensive LNG import strategy to manage existing contractual obligations and evaluate all available options.
Low demand combined with long-term import contracts is already hampering exploration and development activities, with serious implications for future energy security, as imported gas costs more than twice as much as locally produced gas.
The report also projects a new wave of global LNG supply that could lower prices, with the United States and Qatar expected to account for more than half of global LNG output over the next decade. However, Pakistan is unlikely to benefit significantly from this development.
The study further anticipates that industrial output will grow by about four percent annually over the next 15 years. It notes that while Pakistan’s expanding population could provide a demographic dividend, the country faces major challenges in realizing this potential due to limited resources, inadequate infrastructure, and employment constraints. Nonetheless, population growth will continue to drive higher energy demand in residential heating, cooking, electricity generation, and transportation.
Via Dawn
