Islamabad, May 25, 2025: Pakistan’s urea inventory soared to 1.1 million tons in April 2025, marking the highest stockpile in five years and more than three times the five-year average of 337,000 tons. This unexpected surge has sparked fresh debate over export potential amid sluggish domestic demand.
Experts at Topline Securities attribute the accumulation to a combination of low urea demand, deteriorating farm profitability, water scarcity, and unseasonal delays in rainfall across key agricultural regions. These factors have forced many farmers to scale back crop production, resulting in reduced fertilizer consumption.
Agricultural analyst Kashif Ali notes, “The current stock situation is unusual, and unless there’s a sharp uptick in domestic consumption, we’re looking at a logistical and economic challenge.”
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However, this challenge could turn into an opportunity for Pakistan’s economy. Industry insiders suggest that if the government greenlights the export of 700,000 tons of urea, it could unlock up to $200 million in foreign exchange, offering relief amid ongoing economic pressures.
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In contrast, neighboring countries like India and Bangladesh are grappling with fertilizer shortages, making Pakistan’s urea surplus a potential regional asset. Allowing timely exports could not only support local manufacturers but also strengthen trade relations within South Asia.
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The Ministry of Commerce is reportedly reviewing the proposal, weighing the need for strategic reserves against the benefits of immediate economic gains.
