ISLAMABAD: In a significant and timely turn of events, the projected water shortfall for the ongoing Kharif season has been lowered from an earlier estimate of 43% to 27%, due to improved river inflows and rising dam storage levels.
This development has enabled the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) to enhance provincial water allocations accordingly.
This improvement in water availability is expected to boost the outlook for Kharif crop sowing, particularly cotton, which had been under threat due to the earlier projection of a major water deficit.
Irsa is now anticipated to hold another meeting of its advisory committee—the second within a month—to review current conditions and consider additional adjustments to provincial water releases in light of improved flows.
According to an official source, the decision to increase provincial allocations was reached during a session of Irsa’s five-member body, which acknowledged a notable rise in water levels both in rivers and reservoirs.
Previously, the Irsa advisory committee had taken a conservative stance in response to pressure from provinces—especially Sindh—for greater water allocations.
The committee had allocated water based on a worst-case shortage scenario, which meant provinces received minimal water primarily reserved for drinking needs, delaying crop sowing in many areas as a consequence.
Contributing Factors: Snowmelt and Precipitation
In recent days, temperatures in Skardu and surrounding catchment regions have risen to between 19°C and 20°C.
This temperature increase has accelerated the melting of snow, resulting in higher river flows over the past two weeks.
However, Irsa has cautioned that a drop in temperature is forecasted over the next week due to a new rainy spell, which may reduce inflows temporarily.
The authority emphasized that Sindh, in particular, received lower initial allocations to maintain balance and ensure that sufficient supplies would be available once sowing activity ramps up across provinces.
Thanks to this cautious water management strategy, the overall shortage has now decreased by 16 percentage points—from 43% to 27%.
According to Irsa, total water storage in major reservoirs has reached around 1.3 million acre-feet (MAF) as river flows have continued to improve.
The official further added that in light of unpredictable weather conditions, it is wiser to begin the season with a conservative estimate and gradually increase releases based on real-time data and crop sowing timelines.
Starting with high discharges and later reducing them could jeopardize crops already in the ground.
Updated Provincial Allocations
With the current improvement, Irsa has raised Punjab’s water releases from 41,000 cusecs to 64,800 cusecs. Sindh’s allocation has been increased from 35,000 to 45,000 cusecs for the coming 10 days.
Water distributions for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan remain unchanged at 1,900 and 500 cusecs, respectively, as these provinces are exempt from supply cuts.
Officials also reported that water inflows into Tarbela Dam had surged to 52,000 cusecs as of Sunday, up from 22,000 cusecs on April 1, when the Kharif season began.
Outflows from Tarbela increased slightly from 15,000 to 20,000 cusecs, resulting in a live storage buildup of 0.435 MAF. The conservation level also rose from 1,404 feet to 1,427 feet.
Similarly, inflows at Mangla Dam reached 42,000 cusecs on Sunday, compared to 27,000 cusecs earlier this month.
Outflows were also increased from 15,000 to 25,000 cusecs, improving the reservoir’s conservation level from 1,074 to 1,118 feet. Consequently, Mangla now stores approximately 0.657 MAF of water, up from nearly zero.
Overall, total inflows at the rim stations climbed to 148,000 cusecs on Sunday, up from 93,000 cusecs at the beginning of April.
Corresponding outflows also rose from 73,000 to 99,000 cusecs, while the total live storage reached 1.293 MAF—a stark contrast to zero storage at the start of the season.
Initial Crisis and Planning Approach
On March 26, Irsa had forecast a severe and potentially unmanageable water shortage for the Kharif season, rendering long-term planning nearly impossible.
As a result, the advisory committee had authorized releases limited to drinking water only for April, pending further review of weather and water availability.
At that time, water discharges at the rim stations indicated a system-wide shortage of around 51%, peaking at over 60% as water reached provincial canal systems.
“The Irsa Advisory Committee, after considering uncertain climate indicators and the Summer 2025 Weather Outlook provided by the Pakistan Meteorological Department, approved water releases for April 25 with a 43% system shortfall,” an official statement released in the final week of March had noted.
Climatic Background and Crop Relevance
The Met Office had earlier warned of below-average rainfall and higher-than-normal temperatures expected across the northern and southern parts of the country during April to June.
It also reported a significant reduction in winter snowfall in the Indus and Jhelum catchment areas—recording only 26.8 inches compared to a typical 49.7 inches, a deficit of around 31%. As a result, river inflows at the rim stations were initially expected to be far below normal.
Major crops grown during the Kharif season—which spans from April to September—include rice, sugarcane, cotton, maize, and mash.
The recent improvement in water availability comes as a relief to farmers and agricultural planners, though continued monitoring and strategic management will remain essential given ongoing climate variability. by AHmed Mukhtar.
