Islamabad, Mar 29, 2025: The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week concluding on March 27, 2025, registered a marginal week-on-week (WoW) reduction of 0.15% and a year-on-year (YoY) decline of 1.26%.
The SPI, assessed weekly to track fluctuations in the prices of essential goods, provides timely insights into inflation trends across the country.
This index monitors 51 key items, with data sourced from 50 different marketplaces in 17 cities.
Weekly Price Changes
For the week ending March 27, the SPI recorded a slight contraction of 0.15%. The most significant price reductions were noted in:
- Onions (-4.68%)
- Bananas (-4.27%)
- Eggs (-3.87%)
- Garlic (-2.23%)
- Potatoes (-1.47%)
- Chicken (-1.29%)
- Sugar (-0.94%)
- Pulse gram (-0.67%)
Conversely, price hikes were observed in:
- Tomatoes (+9.62%)
- LPG (+1.17%)
- Lawn printed fabric (+0.62%)
- Pulse mash (+0.56%)
- Gur (+0.51%)
- Beef (+0.30%)
- Long cloth (+0.29%)
- Pulse masoor (+0.20%)
- Mustard oil (+0.13%)
- 2.5kg vegetable ghee (+0.10%)
Among the 51 items analyzed, 10 products (19.61%) saw price increases, 10 items (19.61%) declined in cost, while 31 commodities (60.78%) remained unchanged.
Yearly Inflation Trends
On a YoY basis, the SPI demonstrated a total decline of 1.26%. The most significant reductions were recorded in:
- Onions (-68.64%)
- Wheat flour (-33.33%)
- Chilli powder (-20.00%)
- Electricity charges for Q1 (-18.92%)
- Lipton tea (-16.98%)
- Pulse mash (-13.35%)
- Tomatoes (-12.08%)
- Pulse masoor (-11.21%)
- Basmati broken rice (-9.51%)
- Diesel (-9.37%)
- Petrol (-8.55%)
- LPG (-1.82%)
In contrast, notable price surges were observed in:
- Ladies’ sandals (+75.09%)
- Pulse moong (+27.22%)
- Powdered milk (+25.75%)
- Beef (+21.37%)
- Sugar (+18.12%)
- Pulse gram (+17.71%)
- 1kg vegetable ghee (+16.36%)
- 2.5kg vegetable ghee (+15.66%)
- Lawn printed fabric (+12.97%)
- Cooked daal (+12.77%)
- Shirting (+11.57%)
- Georgette fabric (+11.20%)
Inflation Forecast and Economic Outlook
According to Ismail Iqbal Securities, inflation for March 2025 is projected at 0.6%, a substantial decrease from 20.7% in the same period last year, indicating easing price pressures.
Read More: Govt Raises Petroleum Levy on High Octane After Petrol, Diesel Hike
However, on a month-on-month (MoM) basis, inflation is expected to rise by 0.86%, following a 0.83% drop in February. This increase is primarily driven by surging prices of:
- Tomatoes (+22.2%)
- Chicken (+9.9%)
- Sugar (+9.2%)
- Eggs (+8.8%)
- Fresh fruits
As a result, overall food inflation is anticipated to rise by 1.4% MoM.
Core Inflation and Monetary Policy
Core inflation is forecasted to decline to 9.1% from 15.7% last year, with urban core inflation at 8.4% and rural core inflation at 10.1%.
The decline is attributed to a high base effect and improved price stability.
However, rural inflation remains elevated due to persistent supply chain inefficiencies and increased transportation costs.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has maintained its policy rate at 12%, pausing after a cumulative 1,000-basis-point (bps) reduction to evaluate its impact on inflation and economic stability.
The monetary policy committee (MPC) has highlighted ongoing risks from elevated core inflation and potential surges in food and energy prices.
Additionally, the government has increased the petroleum development levy by Rs10 per litre.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stressed the importance of continued monetary tightening, emphasizing that the full effects of recent rate cuts are yet to materialize.
This comprehensive assessment of inflation trends provides a clearer perspective on the economic landscape, enabling policymakers and consumers to make informed decisions.
