Islamabad 30 July: The United States is planning to impose a tariff between 20% and 25% on select Indian exports if trade talks fail.

According to CNN, President Donald Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on Indian imports as high as 25% if the allied nations cannot complete a long-sought trade agreement.

“They are going to pay 25%,” Trump said.

When asked by a reporter if India would pay tariffs of 20% to 25%, Trump said, “Yeah, I think so. India has been – they’re my friends.”

An American delegation is set to visit India in mid-August to resume talks, with hopes of sealing a comprehensive or phased agreement by September or October. If no accord is reached, higher tariffs on Indian exports are expected to take effect immediately on August 1.

India and U.S. officials have held at least five rounds of discussions, covering sensitive sectors including agriculture, dairy, autos, and industrial goods. While Trump has described negotiations as “close,” Indian officials remain cautious. India’s Commerce Minister, Piyush Goyal, called the progress “fantastic” but reaffirmed national interests come first.

Earlier in 2025, Trump’s administration announced a baseline reciprocal tariff of 10% on all trading partners, with the possibility of higher country-specific rates—India could face up to a 27% rate if talks fail. That higher rate was temporarily suspended until July 9 and was later extended to August 1 to allow talks to continue.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that while negotiators are making progress, more work remains before a deal can be formalized—even as a U.S. delegation prepares to visit India in mid-August for further talks.

READ MORE: Pakistan for Composite Dialogue with India

If negotiations fail, Indian exporters—especially in electronics, pharma, gems and jewellery, auto components, and agriculture—will likely face elevated U.S. tariffs, potentially slowing booming export growth .

India–U.S. Merchandise Trade: Key Figures

MetricValue (USD billion / %)Notes
Total goods trade (2024)129 billionBilateral merchandise trade
U.S. trade deficit with India (2024)45.7–46 billionU.S. deficit in goods
Indian exports to U.S. (Apr–Jun FY2025)25.51 billion+22.8% growth year-on-year
Baseline reciprocal tariff (April 2 policy)10%Applied to most countries
Threatened U.S. tariff on Indian goods20%–25%If no trade deal by Aug 1

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