The International Labour Organization (ILO) announced on Wednesday that the global unemployment rate is projected to decrease slightly to 4.9 percent in 2024 from 5.0 percent in 2023, despite ongoing inequalities in labor markets. In January, the ILO had initially anticipated a rise in unemployment to 5.2 percent, particularly in advanced economies.
The adjustment is primarily attributed to lower-than-expected unemployment rates reported so far this year in China, India, and high-income countries, according to the agency. However, the decline in unemployment is expected to plateau in 2025, with the rate remaining at 4.9 percent.
Global economic growth has exceeded expectations in the early months of 2024, especially in the United States, accompanied by a decrease in inflation, which has provided relief to household incomes. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2024 global growth forecasts upward to 3.2 percent from the 3.1 percent estimated in January, largely due to an improved outlook for the U.S.
“This stabilization in the macroeconomic environment is translating into a relatively stable labor market outlook,” noted the ILO.
Nevertheless, the medium-term outlook remains uncertain due to anticipated global monetary and fiscal policy adjustments, with restrictive macroeconomic policies expected to have a delayed impact on the labor market, the ILO added.
