Islamabad, Dec 29: The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s KSE-100 Index is projected to gain momentum in 2025, driven by declining interest rates and sector-specific growth. Analysts from AKD Securities forecast a robust return of 55.5%, underpinned by improved profitability across key sectors like fertilizers, banking, and oil and gas. Falling fixed-income yields are expected to enhance cash flows for exploration and production (E&P) companies and oil marketing firms (OMCs).
Weekly Performance and Economic Highlights
Despite year-end volatility, the KSE-100 closed with a 1.68% weekly gain, adding 1,838 points to reach 111,351. Major contributors included:
- Commercial Banks: +780 points
- OMCs: +336 points
- Investment Banks: +313 points
Treasury bill yields remained stable at 12% for 3- and 6-month papers, while the current account surplus of $729 million further boosted market sentiment. However, forex reserves fell by $228 million to $11.9 billion as of December 20, 2024.
Sectoral Highlights and Market Trends
Top-performing sectors included Jute (+34.8%), Leasing Companies, and Glass & Ceramics, while ETFs, Textile Spinning, and Transport underperformed.
Key performers for the week:
- PGLC: +46.5%
- TRG: +32.3%
- DAWH: +13.2%
In contrast, laggards included PKGP (-9.5%) and CHCC.
Trading at a P/E ratio of 6.0x—below its 10-year average—the KSE-100 has delivered a remarkable 130% cumulative return over the past two years. With favorable macroeconomic indicators, including a stable PKR/USD exchange rate and increasing EU exports (+14% YoY), the index is well-positioned for sustained growth, solidifying its status as an attractive investment avenue.
