ISLAMABAD, March 17: In Pakistan fertilizer sector, for sales the sluggish trend continues, though the analysts believe sector players would pass on the impact of hike in gas prices along with any inflationary pressures which would keep profitability intact.
With the Rabi season ending and no major sowing being done, fertilizer offtake continues its sluggish trend. In February 2025, Urea sales recorded a decline of 36 month on month and 22% year on year to 347,000 tons.
Company wise analysis reveals that FATIMA urea offtake improved 42/24% YoY/MoM to 69KT in Feb’25, whereas FFC/EFERT recorded a decline of 35/52% YoY to 156/94KT, respectively.
Industry DAP offtake dwindled 65/35% YoY/MoM in Feb’25 to only 40KT. FFC/EFERT DAP offtake declined 83/86% YoY to 25/3KT, respectively, whereas FATIMA DAP offtake inclined 22/64% YoY/MoM to 4KT.
Pakistan Fertilizer Sector Impact
Fertilizer sales remained lethargic in Feb’25: Pakistan domestic Urea offtake declined by 36/22% YoY/MoM in Feb’25, reaching 347KT. DAP offtake dropped 65/35% YoY/MoM to 40KT.
NP offtake lessened/increased 46/19% YoY/MoM in Feb’25 to 44KT, while CAN offtake deteriorated 3/12% YoY/MoM to 66KT. Industry urea inventory levels have stayed on the lower end due to no imports and lower production reaching 536KT in Feb’25.
DAP inventory has also eased off to 160KT due to no imports in Feb’25. Company-wise urea inventory was recorded at 67/280/168/21KT for FFC/EFERT/FATIMA/AGL, respectively, in Feb’25. DAP inventory of FFC/EFERT reached 66/57KT.
FFC/EFERT offtake dropped YoY: FFC/EFERT urea offtake dwindled 35/52% YoY, respectively, to reach 156/94KT in Feb’25. Market attributes this decline solely to the seasonality factor.
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Where the whole industry has undergone decline in offtake, FATIMA experienced a surge in Urea dispatches to the tune of 42% YoY to 69KT. This increase in sales is attributable to better gas availability in recent months.
FATIMA urea market share picks up: In Urea market, FFC/EFERT/FATIMA/AGL market share was recorded at 45/27/20/8% in Feb’25 from 44/36/9/6% in Feb’24.
In the DAP market, FFC/EFERT/FATIMA market share was reported at 62/9/9% in Feb’25.
No DAP Imports in Feb’25: DAP offtake was recorded at 40KT in Feb’25, recording a decline of 65/35% YoY/MoM.
DAP inventory levels increased MoM due to lower sales, however, on a broader level, inventory stayed on the lower side. Conversely, in Feb’25, no DAP was imported because of lower demand and already available stock.
FATIMA DAP improved YoY: FFC/EFERT DAP offtake dropped 83/86% YoY in Feb’25 to only 25/3KT (Feb’24: 144/25KT) whereas FATIMA saw a significant incline of 22/64% YoY/MoM to reach 4KT.
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NP/NPK offtake surged MoM in Feb’25: On a MoM basis, NP/NPK offtake amplified 19/60% in Feb’25 to reach 44/4KT.
Market attributes this surge merely to the seasonality factor and expect this to normalize in the upcoming months.
Then again, on a YoY basis, NP/NPK sales saw a decline of 46/7%. In Feb’25, CAN offtake declined 3/12% YoY/MoM to reach 66KT.
Pakistan Fertilizer Sector Outlook
Analysts have an “outperform” stance on the sector given government’s efforts for food security amid better pricing of staple and cash crops i.e. wheat, maize, rice and sugarcane.
Furthermore, analysts believe sector players would pass on the impact of hike in gas prices along with any inflationary pressures which would keep profitability intact.
